Regional Projections

[cajundiehard]

D1 Baseball’s projections this morning had us as a No. 3 seed in the Austin Regional. Those projections came out before we beat Texas State.

Here's what scares me about those projections. They only have 3 SBC teams in... Coastal, SM, and Cajuns. I THINK SBC should be a 4-5 bid league - but who knows. Hopefully Baseball America is right on this. Bubble teams always need to worry about stolen bids, obviously.

If Southern Miss doesn't win the tournament (besides us) that's a stolen bid. They also have Texas State and Troy listed as part of the first few out. Before Cajuns win today, it would have been hard to argue Cajuns should get in over TSU. I'm not sure what the committee will emphasize. Now, even with TSU up 4-1 vs Cajuns, I think it's a toss-up (Cajun RPI and other metrics are a little better).

Another factor that helps. Currently Cajun RPI (33) is slightly closer to Coastal (26) who is considered a lock than it is to TSU (41)... and of course the head to head record vs the Chickens helps. Of course the upcoming 6th game will impact this.

I'd feel much better with one more win to get to the Championship. And a Troy loss to Southern Miss.

[sportsfanatic21]

Here's what scares me about those projections. They only have 3 SBC teams in... Coastal, SM, and Cajuns. I THINK SBC should be a 4-5 bid league - but who knows. Hopefully Baseball America is right on this. Bubble teams always need to worry about stolen bids, obviously.

If Southern Miss doesn't win the tournament (besides us) that's a stolen bid. They also have Texas State and Troy listed as part of the first few out. Before Cajuns win today, it would have been hard to argue Cajuns should get in over TSU. I'm not sure what the committee will emphasize. Now, even with TSU up 4-1 vs Cajuns, I think it's a toss-up (Cajun RPI and other metrics are a little better).

Another factor that helps. Currently Cajun RPI (33) is slightly closer to Coastal (26) who is considered a lock than it is to TSU (41)... and of course the head to head record vs the Chickens helps. Of course the upcoming 6th game will impact this.

I'd feel much better with one more win to get to the Championship. And a Troy loss to Southern Miss.

UL is closer to a 2-seed than being out of the tournament.

Texas State may already be in as well, but will be in with a win tonight.

Troy is probably in if they beat S. Miss this afternoon.

[cajundiehard]

UL is closer to a 2-seed than being out of the tournament.

Texas State may already be in as well, but will be in with a win tonight.

Troy is probably in if they beat S. Miss this afternoon.

I hope you are right. I just don't see the SBC getting 5 bids. D1 says just 3. I'm hoping at least 4.

[gonegolfin]

I hope you are right. I just don't see the SBC getting 5 bids. D1 says just 3. I'm hoping at least 4.

The Cajuns are in. If they can win tonight, they have a legitimate shot at a #2 seed. I believe that I was spot on when I said before the tournament that the Cajuns had a less than a 50% chance to make the field going 1-2 in the conference tournament (beating just Marshall). That would have left them with an RPI ranking in the mid 40's ... maybe upper 40's ... outer edge of the bubble. But they did so much more than that, adding two wins against Coastal and one against Texas State. A win against Texas State tonight and a #2 seed is a real possibility, regardless of what happens tomorrow.

I also think Texas State is in with a win tonight ... they may make it with a loss. D1 Baseball was down on Texas State because of their Q1 record (when they were 2-9). But they have 5 Q1 wins and have 4 wins against the Cajuns (head-to-head). Texas State was recently higher in the pecking order vs. the Cajuns (despite what D1 Baseball predicted yesterday). Not now (after the Cajun win today) ... but Texas State did not fall off of the face of the earth.

Troy is right there as well, but I think they need to win this afternoon against Southern Mississippi.

I see only 3 bids as unlikely (less than 30% chance) ... 4 bids as very likely (>= 75% chance) ... and 5 bids a real possibility (in the ballpark of 40% -> 50% chance). But there is more baseball to play ... and as always, it depends on stolen bids and how others on the bubble perform this weekend.

Brian

[cajundiehard]

Always appreciate your commentary and expertise!

GEAUX CAJUNS!

[cajundiehard]

I see only 3 bids as unlikely (less than 30% chance) ... 4 bids as very likely (>= 75% chance) ... and 5 bids a real possibility (in the ballpark of 40% -> 50% chance). But there is more baseball to play ... and as always, it depends on stolen bids and how others on the bubble perform this weekend.

Brian

How are stolen bids stacking up so far this year?

Any teams, in particular that we should be rooting for (already in) / against (would steal a bid)?

[RaginScotsman]

It was just speculation but coming into the tournament, getting at least 2 wins was talked about to keep us in the conversation for an at large. Looking at Troy and TXST’s resumes improving from this weekend, only 2 wins and it looks like we’d be sweating come Monday.

[RaginScotsman]

Pitt nearly gets run ruled by NC and jumps up 10+ in RPI.

Kentucky wins 2 series in the SEC and goes 0-1 in their tournament. They’ve stayed pretty static in the high 30s. Sunbelt teams dancing around them for days.

RPI is not the end all for the post season, but you just smile sometimes.

[Diehard1280]

Cajuns have to be a lock at this point. May have played their way to a 2-seed.

[Redbug58]

If we win tomorrow and opponent is Southern Miss, is there a chance our RPI drops into the 20’s??

[IdeaL]

If we win tomorrow and opponent is Southern Miss, is there a chance our RPI drops into the 20’s??

One part of me is hoping for that scenario. The other part of me wants another stab at Troy.

[NewsCopy]

With a scorching hot run in the Sun Belt, see where Louisiana baseball now stands in the latest NCAA Tournament projections.

More...

[RaginDave]

At best high 20’s. But probably will settle in around 30.

[UL_Cajuns]

Well I think we eliminated TXST yesterday! Gave them no choice but to put us in for sure now.

[gonegolfin]

If we win tomorrow and opponent is Southern Miss, is there a chance our RPI drops into the 20’s??

There is a chance (should they beat USM), all other things being equal, that the Cajuns could leap Coastal Carolina (27) and Jacksonville State (26) … these two schools are close. But part of this will depend on what others do.

Brian