CajunsWin G3 Louisiana 3, Coastal 2

[RaginDave]

Yes, I am aware of their brief coverage of the evaluation of the three (podcast). But they also did not cover the head-to-head results, which are quite unfavorable for the Cajuns. Factor that in ... and you can make a strong case for any of the three. Which is why it could come down to the team that has the most success in the conference tournament. There is work to be done ... and not just winning on Tuesday.

Brian

Dang Brian, seems a little harsh on the response, I was just stating that multiple sources including D1 Baseball, who is pretty on top of things has us in. I realize that we have some work to do, but I think winning Tuesday goes a long way in getting us in. I realize that the head to heads with Troy and Texas State are not great, but Troy has a problem as well and that is overall record at 29-27. I think they need a run in the tournament to have a legit shot. USA has an issue with their RPI (currently 60), they need a run in the tournament to have a shot, Troy has an issue with their overall record 29-27 and RPI being currently 46, they need a run in the tournament. Texas State has an issue with Q1 record at 2-9, they need a run in the tournament. UL is sitting (currently) in the best position, the best RPI, solid Q1 record (currently, I realize that can change) and solid record overall and nice SOS both inside and outside the conference. The problem for UL right now is Tuesday night, if they lose that one it could change everything. My personal opinion is if the season ended today, we would be in, unfortunately that is not the case. I think winning Tuesday goes a long way in solidifying us in. My problem is #1, if we don't win, I think we are out and #2 how do you set up pitching for this. If you go with Brasch to get the win (he is by far our best pitcher, right now) you are pitching him on short rest, but if you pitch someone else you might lose and it won't matter your season might be over, but if you win pitching anyone else on Tuesday it really sets you up for the Coastal game and beyond. I think Coach will go with Brasch because he wants to win Tuesday, which I cannot argue with, but I almost think I would roll the dice and start Sawyer Pruitt tomorrow, then come back with Brasch on Wednesday and have Hermann available to Thursday and Roman on Friday. But that is why CMD gets the big bucks.

[cajunpride]

Whoever starts Tuesday has the best chance to make a second starting appearance in tournament so I would probably go with Hermann. Then Brasch against Coastal Wednesday . Or you could flip these2. Depending on pitch counts they could both pitch again even if Brasch came back only for a couple innings to close. That still leaves 3 potential starters with Experience, Roman,Sawdog, and Tollet, if we make it to Sunday game. With the extra game the pitching selection is definitely more like chess than checkers.

[Diehard1280]

Not Bryan, but I can offer some non-exhaustive thoughts.

The Cajuns firmly put themselves in the at-large discussion with the series win this weekend ... and the strongest part of their resume is series wins over both Southern Mississippi and Coastal Carolina. But as I outlined could happen, another important part of their resume (Q1 record) took a hit this weekend. Both Arkansas State and Missouri State fell out as Q1 games and became Q2 games (3 wins and 3 losses), putting the Cajuns at a Q1 record of 5-7. At #24, Coastal Carolina needs to stay in the Top 25, else the Cajuns will lose two more Q1 wins. At #27, Missouri State can possibly get back, but this only adds 1-2 to the Q1 record. Keeping Coastal is the priority. Meanwhile, Arkansas State's season is over, but at #63, there is a chance that they could get back into the Top 60. Pull for the teams around them to lose. All of the above being Q1 would put the Cajuns at 8-10 in Q1 games, with more Q1 games potentially coming in the Sun Belt tournament. Having four Q4 losses also will not help the Cajun cause. The committee could use this as a differentiating factor if they are looking for metrics to separate teams that are close.

The Cajuns are in competition with Texas State and Troy for an at-large bid. It is hard to see the Sun Belt getting more than three bids, despite the conference RPI ranking (#6). If three were firmly in the field and a fourth was on the bubble, yes, quite possible. But I suspect that there may be one spot for Louisiana, Texas State, and Troy (three bubble teams). It feels like a low probability (not impossible) the Sun Belt gets two bubble teams in the field. But as always, it depends on what happens over the final week of conference tournament play across the country ... # of stolen bids, etc..

It is hard to see the Cajuns keeping their RPI ranking without winning three Sun Belt Tournament games. Maybe going 2-2 keeps them in the Top 45 and gives them a solid chance. But Cajun fans should also be pulling for Texas State and Troy to lose.

Texas State (44) - They finished ahead of the Cajuns in the standings and swept the Cajuns ... in blowout fashion. RPI ranking difference is negligible. The big negative on the Texas State resume is a 2-9 Q1 record. Should the Cajuns beat Texas State in the Sun Belt tournament ... and finish ahead of them in the tournament, it looks considerably better for the Cajuns. Losing to Texas State and getting eliminated before Texas State will be a bad look ... and I would not be optimistic in that scenario.

Troy (46) - Also finished ahead of the Cajuns and took 2/3 from the Cajuns. The big negative for Troy is their 29-27 record. They can eliminate themselves from NCAA Tournament consideration by going 0-2 in the conference tournament. But they also did exactly what the selection committee asks teams to do ... assemble good schedules. Troy has the #9 overall SOS in the country, with a NC SOS ranking of #2. You cannot schedule better than that. Additionally, Troy is an impressive 7-9 in Q1 games.

The Cajuns still have work to do, but gave themselves a real opportunity by winning this weekend and registering impressive series wins against Southern Mississippi (slam dunk #1 seed and regional host) and Coastal Carolina (solid #2 seed with the optics of being the national runner-up from 2025). But just beating Marshall on Tuesday does not get it done in my opinion. Beating Marshall and losing the next two games would see their RPI take a hit ... and would put Texas State and Troy in an even stronger position.

Brian

Apologies, fine sir. I knew that. Thanks for the breakdown.

[gonegolfin]

Dang Brian, seems a little harsh on the response, I was just stating that multiple sources including D1 Baseball, who is pretty on top of things has us in. I realize that we have some work to do, but I think winning Tuesday goes a long way in getting us in.

Apologies if you took it that way. Was not intended. I mainly wanted to establish that the D1 Baseball crew neglected to mention the glaring head-to-head. It was about two minutes of discussion, definitely not in depth.

Brian