CajunsWin G3 Louisiana 3, Coastal 2

[IdeaL]

CC 02
LA 03
FINAL

[CajunRed]

That was fun to watch.

[HOUCajun]

Pappenbrock looked great! Solid series win! It really hurts to miss out on the top 6 seeds

[Diehard1280]

Nice series win! Regional chances are looking up, I would think, but I haven’t really been watching the RPI. Our conference record isn’t great, but we’ve looked much better the last several weeks.

Bryan?

[CajunChuck]

Impressive series win. Need to continue that momentum into conference tournament.

[Ronnied]

Outfielders were definitely the MVPs of the game. Very impressive performance.

[Cajunsmike]

Nice series win! Regional chances are looking up, I would think, but I haven’t really been watching the RPI. Our conference record isn’t great, but we’ve looked much better the last several weeks.


Bryan?

RPI is now 39. 2 wins in tournament likely garners an at large bid. Tuesday is a must win in my view.

[NewsCopy]

..

[cajundiehard]

RPI is now 39. 2 wins in tournament likely garners an at large bid. Tuesday is a must win in my view.

I think Cajuns need to make it to Saturday's semis to feel good about at-large. So 3 wins, minimum, IMHO.

That extra single elimination game hurts.

[NewsCopy]

A 3-2 victory in Lafayetee bolsters the Ragin' Cajuns at-large NCAA hopes entering the Sun Belt Conference Tournament.

More...

[boomer]

Am I finally on here? Questions….will any Louisiana schools get in the National tourney? Some of the greatest plays in UL history….The CF plays….Amadee’s diving roll of the bunt…. SStop’s 360 catch And throw to first!!!

[cajunpride]

A 3-2 win to win a series against a ranked team with 10 hits and 0 errors is evidence of how far this young team has come. It also screams good high quality baseball and the kind of game I love to enjoy.

[gonegolfin]

Nice series win! Regional chances are looking up, I would think, but I haven’t really been watching the RPI. Our conference record isn’t great, but we’ve looked much better the last several weeks.

Bryan?

Not Bryan, but I can offer some non-exhaustive thoughts.

The Cajuns firmly put themselves in the at-large discussion with the series win this weekend ... and the strongest part of their resume is series wins over both Southern Mississippi and Coastal Carolina. But as I outlined could happen, another important part of their resume (Q1 record) took a hit this weekend. Both Arkansas State and Missouri State fell out as Q1 games and became Q2 games (3 wins and 3 losses), putting the Cajuns at a Q1 record of 5-7. At #24, Coastal Carolina needs to stay in the Top 25, else the Cajuns will lose two more Q1 wins. At #27, Missouri State can possibly get back, but this only adds 1-2 to the Q1 record. Keeping Coastal is the priority. Meanwhile, Arkansas State's season is over, but at #63, there is a chance that they could get back into the Top 60. Pull for the teams around them to lose. All of the above being Q1 would put the Cajuns at 8-10 in Q1 games, with more Q1 games potentially coming in the Sun Belt tournament. Having four Q4 losses also will not help the Cajun cause. The committee could use this as a differentiating factor if they are looking for metrics to separate teams that are close.

The Cajuns are in competition with Texas State and Troy for an at-large bid. It is hard to see the Sun Belt getting more than three bids, despite the conference RPI ranking (#6). If three were firmly in the field and a fourth was on the bubble, yes, quite possible. But I suspect that there may be one spot for Louisiana, Texas State, and Troy (three bubble teams). It feels like a low probability (not impossible) the Sun Belt gets two bubble teams in the field. But as always, it depends on what happens over the final week of conference tournament play across the country ... # of stolen bids, etc..

It is hard to see the Cajuns keeping their RPI ranking without winning three Sun Belt Tournament games. Maybe going 2-2 keeps them in the Top 45 and gives them a solid chance. But Cajun fans should also be pulling for Texas State and Troy to lose.

Texas State (44) - They finished ahead of the Cajuns in the standings and swept the Cajuns ... in blowout fashion. RPI ranking difference is negligible. The big negative on the Texas State resume is a 2-9 Q1 record. Should the Cajuns beat Texas State in the Sun Belt tournament ... and finish ahead of them in the tournament, it looks considerably better for the Cajuns. Losing to Texas State and getting eliminated before Texas State will be a bad look ... and I would not be optimistic in that scenario.

Troy (46) - Also finished ahead of the Cajuns and took 2/3 from the Cajuns. The big negative for Troy is their 29-27 record. They can eliminate themselves from NCAA Tournament consideration by going 0-2 in the conference tournament. But they also did exactly what the selection committee asks teams to do ... assemble good schedules. Troy has the #9 overall SOS in the country, with a NC SOS ranking of #2. You cannot schedule better than that. Additionally, Troy is an impressive 7-9 in Q1 games.

The Cajuns still have work to do, but gave themselves a real opportunity by winning this weekend and registering impressive series wins against Southern Mississippi (slam dunk #1 seed and regional host) and Coastal Carolina (solid #2 seed with the optics of being the national runner-up from 2025). But just beating Marshall on Tuesday does not get it done in my opinion. Beating Marshall and losing the next two games would see their RPI take a hit ... and would put Texas State and Troy in an even stronger position.

Brian

[Turbine]

Thanks

[IdeaL]

Great write up as always Brian. Thanks for sharing.

[RaginDave]

Not Bryan, but I can offer some non-exhaustive thoughts.

The Cajuns firmly put themselves in the at-large discussion with the series win this weekend ... and the strongest part of their resume is series wins over both Southern Mississippi and Coastal Carolina. But as I outlined could happen, another important part of their resume (Q1 record) took a hit this weekend. Both Arkansas State and Missouri State fell out as Q1 games and became Q2 games (3 wins and 3 losses), putting the Cajuns at a Q1 record of 5-7. At #24, Coastal Carolina needs to stay in the Top 25, else the Cajuns will lose two more Q1 wins. At #27, Missouri State can possibly get back, but this only adds 1-2 to the Q1 record. Keeping Coastal is the priority. Meanwhile, Arkansas State's season is over, but at #63, there is a chance that they could get back into the Top 60. Pull for the teams around them to lose. All of the above being Q1 would put the Cajuns at 8-10 in Q1 games, with more Q1 games potentially coming in the Sun Belt tournament. Having four Q4 losses also will not help the Cajun cause. The committee could use this as a differentiating factor if they are looking for metrics to separate teams that are close.

The Cajuns are in competition with Texas State and Troy for an at-large bid. It is hard to see the Sun Belt getting more than three bids, despite the conference RPI ranking (#6). If three were firmly in the field and a fourth was on the bubble, yes, quite possible. But I suspect that there may be one spot for Louisiana, Texas State, and Troy (three bubble teams). It feels like a low probability (not impossible) the Sun Belt gets two bubble teams in the field. But as always, it depends on what happens over the final week of conference tournament play across the country ... # of stolen bids, etc..

It is hard to see the Cajuns keeping their RPI ranking without winning three Sun Belt Tournament games. Maybe going 2-2 keeps them in the Top 45 and gives them a solid chance. But Cajun fans should also be pulling for Texas State and Troy to lose.

Texas State (44) - They finished ahead of the Cajuns in the standings and swept the Cajuns ... in blowout fashion. RPI ranking difference is negligible. The big negative on the Texas State resume is a 2-9 Q1 record. Should the Cajuns beat Texas State in the Sun Belt tournament ... and finish ahead of them in the tournament, it looks considerably better for the Cajuns. Losing to Texas State and getting eliminated before Texas State will be a bad look ... and I would not be optimistic in that scenario.

Troy (46) - Also finished ahead of the Cajuns and took 2/3 from the Cajuns. The big negative for Troy is their 29-27 record. They can eliminate themselves from NCAA Tournament consideration by going 0-2 in the conference tournament. But they also did exactly what the selection committee asks teams to do ... assemble good schedules. Troy has the #9 overall SOS in the country, with a NC SOS ranking of #2. You cannot schedule better than that. Additionally, Troy is an impressive 7-9 in Q1 games.

The Cajuns still have work to do, but gave themselves a real opportunity by winning this weekend and registering impressive series wins against Southern Mississippi (slam dunk #1 seed and regional host) and Coastal Carolina (solid #2 seed with the optics of being the national runner-up from 2025). But just beating Marshall on Tuesday does not get it done in my opinion. Beating Marshall and losing the next two games would see their RPI take a hit ... and would put Texas State and Troy in an even stronger position.

Brian

D1 Baseball Podcast with Aaron Fitt, Kendall Roger and Mark Etheridge yesterday has the Cajuns in as of right now. They said their resume is better than Troy, USA and Texas State. But they have Texas State and Troy as both 1st 4 out. That means that we probably have a very short leash. Tomorrow for me is the key, we have to win tomorrow to give ourselves the best chance to get in.

[gonegolfin]

D1 Baseball Podcast with Aaron Fitt, Kendall Roger and Mark Etheridge yesterday has the Cajuns in as of right now. They said their resume is better than Troy, USA and Texas State. But they have Texas State and Troy as both 1st 4 out. That means that we probably have a very short leash. Tomorrow for me is the key, we have to win tomorrow to give ourselves the best chance to get in.

Yes, I am aware of their brief coverage of the evaluation of the three (podcast). But they also did not cover the head-to-head results, which are quite unfavorable for the Cajuns. Factor that in ... and you can make a strong case for any of the three. Which is why it could come down to the team that has the most success in the conference tournament. There is work to be done ... and not just winning on Tuesday.

Brian